With the 2024 presidential election days away, Rasmussen’s head pollster, Mark Mitchell, has forecasted a significant win for former President Donald Trump, drawing comparisons to Ronald Reagan’s historic landslide over Jimmy Carter in 1980. According to Mitchell, Trump is on track to not only win in key battleground states but to dominate the national popular vote, signaling what he believes could be a sweeping “political realignment” favoring Republicans.
In an exclusive interview, Mitchell shared his bold projection, stating, “What you’re hearing out there is that the polls are close, and I think that’s wrong.” He claimed that independent polling suggests Trump is leading strongly in battleground states, with even traditional Democratic strongholds like Virginia and New Hampshire potentially flipping in Trump’s favor. Other states such as Minnesota and New Mexico, Mitchell suggested, could follow suit, creating a broader Republican victory.
Mitchell attributed this potential shift to voters’ dissatisfaction with the current administration under Vice President Kamala Harris, who replaced President Joe Biden on the ticket this election cycle. “People don’t care who Kamala Harris is. They care that she’s part of the Biden administration, and the Biden administration has been deeply unpopular,” he remarked. Mitchell further noted that Trump’s long-established public image and familiarity with Americans—despite the controversies surrounding him—could be a significant advantage in contrast to Harris.
Polling dynamics, Mitchell argued, reflect a major realignment where party affiliations are becoming less relevant than loyalty to individual candidates. “Party [affiliation] means a lot less than whether you support Trump or Harris,” he observed. This shift, he contended, may be making it difficult for pollsters to accurately capture the state of the race, especially given Trump’s history of outperforming polls.
Looking at Trump’s support in swing states, Mitchell pointed out that the former president appears even stronger in these key areas compared to previous election cycles. “He’s doing way better than he ever has in previous cycles,” he said, estimating that if Trump maintains his current trajectory in both national and swing state polls, it could lead to a decisive victory. Comparing the situation to 1980, Mitchell suggested that Trump’s broad appeal mirrors Reagan’s widespread support in that election, which culminated in a landslide.
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